November 07, 2007
Every so often, a blogger, a reporter, an editor, a marketing exec, an analyst, or some attention seeker declares a popular technology dead. Controversy follows, generating, page views, publicity, blogosphere buzz, and the like. Don't you find it all little silly after a while? I know I do, especially after so many of these predictions have been so very wrong. Blame it on last week's spooky holiday, but I'm feeling inspired to celebrate a few fine specimens of the walking (and working) undead. Feel free to add your own favorites in the comments -- you might just extend my list.
1. Web 2.0.
Yes, Web 2.0 is hyped. Yes, the term means different things to different people. But doesn't this post about Web 2.0's "on the ropes" status with the venture capital community really come down to nomenclature? Okay, so don't call yourself a "Web 2.0" company if you're looking for VC support (as Tim O'Reilly suggests in his comment). But that doesn't mean that the group of technologies typically mentioned under the Web 2.0 label is going anywhere. Blogs (also a candidate for undead status), wikis, RSS, Ajax, social networking, and the like are firmly entrenched in the consumer world and making real inroads into enterprises. As an example, IBM this summer unleashed a preview of set of technologies that help companies mix their enterprise feeds with information on the Web and from other sources. Now, I know the post I linked to doesn't declare Web 2.0 "dead" per se; it's just the latest in a string of death watch reports dating back years.
2. Relational database management systems.
Ingres cofounder and one-time Informix CTO Michael Stonebraker kicked off a recent round of these discussions with a blog post called "One size fits all: A concept whose time has come and gone," in which he implies that RDBMSs can no longer meet the specialized needs of data warehousing, scientific research, and other areas that "2007 customers" require. IBM Information Management CTO Anant Jhingran, DB2 for z/OS guru Willie Favero and DB2 for LUW product manager Chris Eaton wrote timely and informed responses to this post. In your minds, is a defense of the RDBMS really needed? Does anyone envision a mass exodus away from them? The future of the RDBMS did come up at the IBM Information On Demand 2007 conference last month. Gartner database analysts Donald Feinberg and Mark Beyer debated their relevance in a session called "Rumors of the Death of the Database." Their conclusion: Dead? No. Evolving? Yes. I heard the same thing from various IBMers and partners during the week, too. The evolution is already underway (think DB2 9 and, now, 9.5 with hybrid relational/XML capabilities). But don't forget IBM's other undead data servers (Informix Dynamic Server and U2), which are also changing and evolving to meet market needs. And how about IMS? Yes, I know it's not relational. I mention it here because, although it's even older than DB2, IMS customers don't want to give it up, and IBM continues to update it to meet the needs of "2007 customers" and beyond. The latest release, for example, features new XML, Web services and XQuery support.
Yes, relational database management systems (or data servers, if you prefer) are likely to change in the years ahead. Does change imply that a technology is dying? I tend to think change implies growth and adaptation.
What's your take? Will the absence of VC support for so-called Web 2.0 companies make any difference at all? Are we living through the last days of the relational era?
What are some of your favorite "undead" technologies? Stay tuned for more of mine.
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